Journal of Big History

Brief Biographies of Constributors

David LePoire — Wed, 10 Apr 2024 00:00:00 -0400

Cover, Table of Contents

Lowell Gustafson — Wed, 10 Apr 2024 00:00:00 -0400

Introduction to this Special Issue

David LePoire, Andrey Korotayev, Leonid Grinin — Wed, 10 Apr 2024 00:00:00 -0400

Although complexity plays a significant role in big history, substantial gaps persist in our comprehension. While the papers in this issue do not provide definitive answers to these gaps, they contribute to the ongoing discussion on how to address these issues and propose potential pathways for resolution. These gaps encompass measurement, focus, organization, relevance, consistency, and interpretation. While there may not be unanimous agreement on the specific direction to take, the academic discussions evident in these papers aim to elucidate the issues and foster understanding within the expansive and diverse scientific community.

A Complexity Ladder for Big History

J. N. Nielsen — Wed, 10 Apr 2024 00:00:00 -0400

Complexity is a central problem for big history because big history has made complexity a central theme, constructing a cosmological periodization based on the sequential emergence of qualitatively distinct forms of complexity. How can the big historian differentiate distinct thresholds of emergent complexity while subordinating the entire sequence of thresholds to a single metric of complexity that demonstrates the increase of complexity over multiple scales of magnitude and across qualitatively distinct forms of complexity? The cosmologists’ use of a cosmic distance ladder suggests an analogous construction for complexity: a complexity ladder for big history. While no complexity ladder is formulated in this paper, the program required for a complexity ladder is sketched.

Complexity growth patterns in the Big History

Andrey Korotayev — Wed, 10 Apr 2024 00:00:00 -0400

The paper presents preliminary results of a quantitative analysis of two patterns of complexity growth in the Big History – decelerating universal (cosmic) evolutionary development evidenced in the Universe for a few billions of years after the Big Bang (around 13.8 billion BP) and accelerating global (biosocial) evolutionary development observed for about 4 billion years on the planet Earth since the emergence of life on it and until the early 1970s. It is shown that the first pattern can be described with an astonishing accuracy (R2 = 0.999996) by the following equation: y = C1/(t-t1*), where y is the rate of the universal complexity growth (measured as a number of phase transitions [accompanied by the growth of complexity] per a unit of time), C1 is a constant, and t-t1* is the time since the Big Bang Singularity (t1*~13.8 billion years BP). In the meantime, it was earlier shown that the second pattern could be described with an almost as high accuracy (R2 = 0.9989 to 0.9991) by the following equation: y = C2/(t2*-t), where y is the rate of accelerating global (biosocial) evolutionary development, C2 is another constant, and t2*-t is the time till the 21st century Singularity (t2*, estimated to be around 2027, or 2029 CE). Thus, the post-Big-Bang hyperbolic decrease of universal complexity growth rate and the hyperbolic increase of the growth rate of global complexity in the last 4 billion years proceeded following the same law. We are dealing here with a perfect symmetry: (1) the rate of the universal (cosmic) complexity growth decreases when we move from the Big Bang Singularity, whereas the rate of the global complexity growth increase when we approach the 21st century Singularity; (2) more specifically, as the time since the Big Bang Singularity increases n times, the universal (cosmic) complexity growth rate decreases the same n times, whereas when the time till the 21st century Singularity decreased n times, the global complexity growth rate increased the same n times. A somehow more complex symmetry is observed as regards the interaction between energy dynamics and complexity growth within both processes. The implications of the symmetry of both patterns are discussed.

On Trends and Periods in Big History

Robert Aunger — Wed, 10 Apr 2024 00:00:00 -0400

Over nearly fifty years, Big History has evolved as an interdisciplinary approach, connecting cosmic, geological, biological, and cultural phenomena into a unified narrative of increasing complexity. This paper critically examines various theoretical frameworks within Big History, focusing on their scientific soundness. While progress has been made, challenges persist in establishing a theoretical core and achieving consensus. Commonalities exist, such as the recognition of a trend toward increasing complexity, the division into temporal eras and periods, and the acknowledgment of unique dynamics defining these phases. However, a consensus on the best foundational principles and canonical periods remains elusive. The paper suggests three strategies for theory development: employing cross-disciplinary theories, generalizing discipline-specific theories, or inventing novel theories. Each approach requires further refinement and empirical testing to contribute to consensus building. Big History is argued to have utility based on its ability to contextualize events within a broader framework, but more ambitious rationales and empirical work may be necessary for skeptical audiences. Despite ongoing theoretical debates, immediate progress can be achieved through empirical endeavors, contributing to the discipline's reputation.

How Chaos Theory Brings Order to the Evolution of Intelligence

Nicholas Hoggard — Wed, 10 Apr 2024 00:00:00 -0400

This study investigates links between human evolution, information transmission processes, and Chaos Theory, revealing a mathematical pattern underlying evolutionary milestones. By examining the timing of new methods of information transmission, the research confirms a suspected correlation with the Feigenbaum constant δ, a universal factor in Chaos Theory and also found in complex systems. This pattern is prominent in cultural evolution but also extends to biological evolution, as well as to the evolution of written language, suggesting a predictable framework for understanding the progression of complexity in life. The study incorporates findings from various disciplines, including cognitive science, archaeology, and nonlinear dynamics, providing evidence that our development, while it may be random in most aspects, is deterministic in the way complexity grows steadily and evolves information transmission of increasing sophistication. This multidisciplinary approach offers new insights into the links between chaos, complexity, and information, and their role in driving the evolution of intelligent life.

The General Evolutionary Theory as Unification of Biological and Cultural Evolution and as Basis for a Natural Periodization

Erhard Glötzl — Wed, 10 Apr 2024 00:00:00 -0400

The general evolutionary theory can be seen as a comprehensive generalization and extension of Darwin's theory. The basic idea is to consider not only the evolution of genetic information - as Darwin did - but also the evolution of very general information. It shows that evolution is characterized by the fact that new types of information have developed in leaps and bounds, each with new storage technologies, new duplication technologies and new processing technologies. This unified concept of evolution makes it possible, among other things, to 1) achieve a unified view of biological and cultural evolution; 2) find a natural periodization of the evolution from the formation of the earth until today; and 3) understand the exponential acceleration of evolution through the emergence of targeted variation mechanisms.

Selection and Increasing Complexity in Evolution

Börje Ekstig — Wed, 10 Apr 2024 00:00:00 -0400

This paper explores the concept of complexity in the evolution of life and human culture, proposing that the overarching increase in complexity is driven by the fundamental mechanism of selection. From the origin of life to contemporary human culture, selection plays a pivotal role in favoring complexity in reproductive processes and cultural expressions. The paper distinguishes two main phases of life on Earth: the emergence and evolution of life and animals, and the subsequent emergence of the human species with its complex cultural expressions. Despite apparent differences, both phases are argued to be guided by the same fundamental mechanism—selection, taking various forms such as adaptive natural selection, non-adaptive selection, sexual selection, and memetic selection. The paper identifies the acquisition of language as a crucial development, influenced by imitation and sexual selection, and suggests that the strong selective pressure for language has driven the rapid growth of the human brain and intelligence. This enhanced intelligence, in turn, has played a pivotal role in cultural, scientific, and technological achievements marked by unprecedented levels of complexity. The role of memetic selection is explored in the dissemination of religion across human societies, and the unintended consequences of Martin Luther's introduction of literacy and schooling for Western culture are examined. By integrating evolutionary principles with cultural and linguistic insights, this paper offers a comprehensive perspective on the unifying force of selection in the evolution of complexity in life and human culture.

Chemical Evolution in Big History

Leonid Grinin — Wed, 10 Apr 2024 00:00:00 -0400

Unfortunately, there is insufficient research on the course of chemical evolution within the framework of the study of both Big History and evolution. The lack of attention to chemical evolution is all the more disappointing since it is a very important part of megaevolution and Big History, which at some of its stages even act as the leading line (in particular, in the formation of pre-life on the Earth five billion years ago). The paper presents a brief history of chemical evolution: from the formation of the first atoms in the Universe to abiogenesis on the Earth, that is, the stage of pre-life and the formation of prerequisites for the emergence of the first living organisms. The history of chemical evolution before life's origin can be divided into three stages: the formation of atoms (pre-evolution); history before the start of the abiogenic phase on the Earth; and abiogenic chemical evolution. However, the author aims to elaborate a more detailed periodization of chemical evolution before life's origin. One should also pay attention to the important feature of chemical evolution which distinguishes it from other lines of evolution, namely, its co-evolutionary nature. The author demonstrates that chemical evolution at all its stages acted as a part of a co-evolutionary tandem: first, as a part of cosmic and stellar-galactic evolution, then as a part of planetary evolution since it is on planets (where temperature parameters are much more comfortable for chemical reactions) that a new qualitative stage in the development of chemical evolution begins. Finally, on the Earth, it developed first as a part of geochemical evolution, and then as a part of bio-chemical evolution, and this development continues until now.

Complexity: A Rationale for the University

Lowell Gustafson — Wed, 10 Apr 2024 00:00:00 -0400

Complexity provides a unifying theme that responds to fundamental questions about the emergent structure of the universe as well as human nature. It offers an intellectual framework for disciplines throughout universities. It structures a universe of knowledge across natural sciences, social sciences, and the humanities – from quarks to global societies and human fascination with inter-galactic relations. Ideas of complexity begin with its unidirectional emergence from the big bang to us now. The idea is developed by its multidirectional emergence that includes narratives from the big bang to planets, galaxies, and life forms other than our own. Furthermore, complexity often entails stasis, with levels of complexity remaining as they are, reversing to simpler levels, or all or parts of nature ending altogether. Speculations about multiple universes lead to an idea of infinite complexity.

Complexity Science and Myth in Big History

Ken Baskin — Wed, 10 Apr 2024 00:00:00 -0400

From early on, David Christian’s vision of big history as a “modern creation myth” faced criticism for introducing elements of spirituality. This essay contends that the resulting controversy arises from a misunderstanding of the nature of myth. The mainstream model of myth depicts it as fanciful stories of supernatural agents that members of a society use to address their anxieties. While this is often the case, the author argues that myth can be more profitably explored as a neurobiological imperative that plays a critical role in cultural evolution. To make this case, he examines how the principles of complexity science helped him understand how human history has gone through periods, such as the Axial Age and Modernity, when the change produced by societies’ greatest successes demanded new ways of thinking about the world in order for those societies to survive. He then examines current neurobiology to explain how reinventing myth has allowed such societies to transform in ways that enabled them to meet the challenges produced by change. With this understanding of myth, the essay concludes with a discussion of how the myth of big history can allow us to contribute to the new ways of thinking that are emerging today, as culture evolves so we can meet our current existential challenges.

Last Stop on the Cosmic Journey

Marc Widdowson — Wed, 10 Apr 2024 00:00:00 -0400

History is here imagined as a moral, intellectual, and physical journey whose destination involves: penetration to the furthest reaches of the cosmos, complete understanding of the laws of nature, and a perfect system of ethics with respect to the management of society and nature. It is suggested that the exhaustion of material potential implied by the Second Law of Thermodynamics is counterbalanced by the augmentation of informational potential in a process of ephemeralisation or doing more with less. Evolution is modelled as a process of hyper-exponentially increasing combinatorial complexity interrupted by occasional restarts or episodes of creative destruction. Drawing on these speculations, a calculation is developed leading to the necessarily rough and impressionistic conclusion that humanity will reach its above-defined destination some twenty millennia from now.

Exploring the Human History

Sergey Nikolaevich Grinchenko — Wed, 10 Apr 2024 00:00:00 -0400

Since the 1970s, cybernetic modeling of evolutionary processes has progressed, particularly with the development of the informatics-cybernetic model (ICM). This model conceptualizes humanity as a self-regulating hierarchical network system, continuously tracking energy-based target crite-ria through search optimization algorithms. The outcomes are recorded in the system memory of corresponding hierarchical subsystems. Within the ICM framework, the spatio-temporal charac-teristics of global evolution exhibit modifications reminiscent of the Zhirmunsky-Kuzmin number series, a geometric progression they identified in the exploration of critical levels in biosystem development. The study also showcases applications of mathematical-cybernetic modeling results in understanding historical processes examined by archaeologists and historians.

Applying a Big History Analogy to Facilitate Information Sharing

Gustavo Lau — Wed, 10 Apr 2024 00:00:00 -0400

Using analogies we generalize Tyler Volk’s combogenesis concept. A pedagogical application is a narrative that allows us to include some milestones of mathematics and physics in Big History courses. Applying the concept to books and book collections we suggest a philanthropic idea. This simple and potentially powerful application mixes low and high technology: using online bookstores, we propose the reproduction of personal book and video collections in public libraries. We give an example, at Simón Bolívar University in Venezuela, where this has already happened. We finish by proposing to use this idea to create a Big History book and video collection that could be donated to educational institutions around the world where a Big History course could be taught remotely.

An Approach to Categorize Big History Papers

David LePoire — Wed, 10 Apr 2024 00:00:00 -0400

There is a growing literature on Big History after four years of the Journal of Big History (JBH) and ten years of the Evolution Almanac series. A study was done to 1) construct a reference database of these papers, which includes abstracts and many web links; 2) propose a framework to categorize these papers so that they can be filtered and searched; and 3) analyze the paper categorization to determine the statistics of frequency and topic combinations.