Сингулярность XXI века в контексте Большой истории: математический анализ

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Published: Jul 1, 2018
DOI: https://doi.org/10.22339/jbh.v2i3.2328

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Abstract

Представление о том, что в ближайшее время нас ждет некая «Сингулярность», стало в последнее время достаточно популярным, прежде всего благодаря деятельности технического директора Google в области технического обучения Рэймонда Курцвейла и его книге The Singularity Is Near (2005). Показано, что математический анализ приводимого им ряда событий, начинающегося с возникновения нашей Галактики и заканчивающегося расшифровкой кода ДНК, действительно практически идеально описывается (неизвестной самому Курцвейлу) крайне простой математической функцией с сингулярностью в районе 2029 г. Показано также, что составленный в начале 2000-х (совершенно независимо от Курцвейла) российким физиком А. Д. Пановым аналогичный временной ряд (начинающийся с возникновения жизни на Земле и заканчивающийся информационной революцией) также практически идеально описывается (не использованной А. Д. Пановом) математической функцией (крайне сходной с вышеупомянутой) с сингулярностью в районе 2027 г. Показано, что эта функция также чрезвычайно сходна с уравнением, открытым в 1960 г. Х. фон Ферстером, показавшим в своей знаменитой статье в журнале Science, что она практически идеально описывает динамику численности населения и характеризуется математической сингулярностью в районе 2027 г. Все это говорит о наличии достаточно строгих глобальных макроэволюционных закономерностей, которые могут удивительно точно описываться крайне простыми математическими функциями. Вместе с тем продемонстрировано, что в районе точки сингулярности нет основания вслед за Курцвейлом ожидать невиданного (на много порядков) ускорения темпов технологического развития; имеются бóльшие основания интерпретировать эту точку как индикатор зоны перегиба, после прохождения которой темпы глобальной эволюции будут систематически в долгосрочной перспективе замедляться.

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